Oil prices dived, stocks surged, and the dollar was knocked back as the ceasefire sparked a relief rally, fuelled by hopes that oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz could resume. The reaction was not gradual. It was immediate, global, and it happened before anyone had confirmed a single thing had changed on the ground.
What Six Weeks of Conflict Had Already Done
To understand why one social media post moved global markets dramatically, you need to understand what the preceding six weeks had already done. US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February pushed tensions to the brink, with Tehran effectively choking off the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway that carries about 20% of the world's oil and gas. That single closure rewired the entire global rates outlook. Oil surged past $100 a barrel. Inflation fears returned. Rate cut expectations were pushed out by more than a year. Governments and companies were forced to scramble for cover against a sudden energy shock, throwing financial planning into disarray. The dollar was the direct beneficiary. Every escalation pushed capital toward the greenback, the most reliable haven when everything else felt uncertain. For six weeks, it was the only trade that made sense.
The Moment Everything Reversed
Then came the ceasefire, and the reversal was just as sharp. US crude futures fell around 16% to $94.59 a barrel, Brent slid 15% to $92.35, S&P 500 futures leapt over 2%, European futures jumped over 4%, Japan's Nikkei surged about 5%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 6% enough to trigger a trading halt. The dollar index dropped to a one-month low. Everything was repriced within the same session. This is how sentiment-driven markets work. The haven bid that builds during a crisis does not wait for formal resolution before it unwinds. Hope alone is enough to move it.
Why the Real Test Is Still Ahead
A ceasefire is not a reopening. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to normal traffic, and tanker operators and insurers are still assessing whether it is safe to resume passage. Carol Kong of Commonwealth Bank of Australia warned that the conflict's root causes remain unresolved, keeping re-escalation firmly on the table, and that dollar losses may prove short-lived if the war runs into June. Westpac's Martin Whetton captured the broader investor mood plainly: for behaviour to genuinely change, it would have to be a lasting peace. Right now, people are not actually taking risks.