UK New-Home Registrations Fall 13% Ahead of Budget

UK New-Home Registrations Fall 13% as Housing Market Faces Growing Pressure

Builders registered 26,231 new homes in the UK between July and September, 13% fewer than a year earlier, according to the National House Building Council (NHBC). Because homes are registered with the NHBC before construction starts, the figures are an early sign of how many homes will be built over the next year or two. This news precedes Chancellor John Healey’s Budget, which is expected to set out the details of Your First Home, a government scheme to help first-time buyers purchase new-build homes.

October 27, 2026

Higher mortgage costs are holding buyers back

Housebuilders start new projects when they are confident buyers will be there to purchase the homes. That confidence has weakened as borrowing costs have risen. Rightmove’s average two-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.55% in October, up from 4.25% in February before the war with Iran pushed up energy prices and inflation. Private-sector registrations fell 8% to 18,359. Registrations for rental and affordable homes fell faster, by 23% to 7,872. Apartment registrations fell 27%, the steepest drop of any home type. “Demand remains fragile, affordability is stretched and our latest figures show that the pipeline of new homes is continuing to shrink,” said Daniel Pearce, chief strategy officer at the NHBC

Most regions are registering fewer homes

Registrations fell in 10 of the UK’s 12 regions. The South East and Northern Ireland both dropped 32%, and Wales fell 24%. Yorkshire and the Humber rose 27% and the West Midlands 10%. London was broadly flat on a year earlier, but its longer-term decline is the steepest: 1,223 homes were registered in the capital last quarter, against 5,130 in the same period of 2019.

This puts further distance between the industry and the government’s pledge of 1.5 million new homes in England by 2029. In September, housing secretary Angela Rayner said there was “a slim chance” of meeting it.

Can Your First Home revive demand?

Announced last month, the scheme would let first-time buyers purchase a new-build home with a 2.5% deposit, backed by a government loan worth 20% of the price that is interest-free at first. Income limits and local price caps, which the Budget is expected to confirm, would target it at buyers on lower incomes.

Its predecessor, Help to Buy, ran from 2013 to 2023, and a government evaluation published in September gives it a mixed record. It estimates that about 15% of new-build homes in England in that period were built because of the scheme, and rates it very high value for money. It also found that about 54% of buyers said they could have bought a home without it, and that it likely pushed prices slightly higher.

Pearce welcomed the scheme but said its success would depend on the details, including how much developers contribute and whether the caps reflect local prices. He also called for more predictable regulation, so builders can plan investment with confidence.